Friday 9 October 2009
QV.CO.NZ HOUSING SURVEY - SEPTEMBER 2009
Increased optimism for the property market
The results of the latest quarterly survey of the New Zealand housing market carried out by QV.co.nz shows more signs of optimism in the housing market.
In a dramatic change from last quarter’s survey, the majority of respondents now expect house prices to rise over the coming year, rather than fall. This reflects the relatively rapid turnaround in property values that we have seen since earlier this year, which was largely unexpected. There were plenty of anecdotal comments in the survey noting more interested buyers in the market, and a shortage of quality properties available for sale, leading to these properties selling quickly and prices being strong.
Compared to last quarter’s survey, a lower proportion of respondents were concerned about financial pressures and job security, seemingly reflecting signs that the worst of the recession is over.
The proportion of respondents who believe that now is a good time to buy has remained steady, as has the number of people considering buying or selling in the next year. What has changed over the quarter is that those who are considering buying or selling are now thinking of doing so within the next six months rather than waiting longer as was the case last quarter. The reasons for buying or selling have also shifted slightly with an increase in people considering moving to another area, and a slight increase in first home buyers.
Despite these optimistic results, the comments received suggest people are still cautious, particularly over whether positive signs in the economy will persist beyond the short term.
Overall, the QV.co.nz housing survey results show signs of optimism:
- A net 41% of respondents believe that now is a good time to buy, up from 38% in June
- There has been a dramatic turnaround in expectations for house prices over the next twelve months, with a net 45% of respondents expecting house prices to increase, compared to a net 21% expecting a decrease in the June survey
- Of the main factors influencing the decision to buy or sell, job security, financial pressures and lending conditions are now less important than last quarter
- There has been little change since last quarter in intentions for the next year, with 46% still intending to buy and 35% intending to sell
- There has been an increase in the number of respondents intending to buy or sell in the next three months
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