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Signs of uncertainty in the property market

Property values have increased further according to the QV residential property indices for January released today. Nationally, values are 4.4 percent above the same time last year, and 4.3 percent below the peak of the market in late 2007.

 
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Auckland Region
7.3%
$549,028
Hamilton
3.5%
$350,722
New Plymouth
7.1%
$337,719
Palmerston Nth
5.6%
$290,709
Christchurch
6.3%
$380,268
Queenstown
0.5%
$607,245
Invercargill
4.6%
$208,128
NZ Map
Whangarei
-3.9%
$330,076
Tauranga
0.6%
$422,226
Rotorua
3.3%
$268,690
Napier
5.1%
$321,551
Hastings
2.6%
$327,341
Wellington Rgn
5.7%
$460,638
Nelson
3.6%
$340,782
Dunedin
5.0%
$279,101
   
New Zealand
4.4%
$409,807

    Annual Property Value Change
    Average Sales Price
   
       
   

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The average sales price across New Zealand also increased to $409,807 in January, up from the $404,671 in December. However, the average sales price is a less reliable measure of value change than the QV index as the average can be skewed depending on which part of the market is active.
 
Glenda Whitehead of QV Valuations said “market activity in January appears to have been patchy. Overall, activity was lower than expected, although our valuers are seeing an increase in activity in some sectors of the market and a decrease in others. While it is normal for sales activity to be at its lowest over the Christmas period, there is usually an increase in listings activity in January leading into the busiest time of the year in February and March. This January the expected increase appears to be absent”.

Whitehead said “this lower level of market activity in January could be due to more people being forced to take additional leave this Christmas, and only recently returned from holidays. There are also signs of increasing indecision in the market, fuelled by uncertainty over interest rates, employment, which direction property prices are likely to move, and the recently announced tax working group recommendations”.

“The majority of the market activity, particularly in the main centres, is being driven more by existing homeowners and first home buyers rather than investors. Those currently entering the market appear to be taking a cautious approach to their decisions, and are doing their research thoroughly. Some of the frantic market activity of 2009, when there were multiple buyers competing for a property, appears to have eased, at least for the time being” said Whitehead.

“It is still too early in the year to conclude the likely pace of the market in the coming months. There is increasing debate around the likely impact of the options put forward by the tax working group, but movements in property market are driven by a combination of factors, and while any tax changes implemented will impact, that change will be alongside other market factors such as interest rates, employment security, and bank lending policies prevalent at the time any of those tax changes come into effect” said Whitehead.

Values in most of the main centres have continued to increase in recent months and are now all above the same time last year. Values in the Auckland Region are now 7.3 percent up, the Wellington Area is 5.7 percent up, and Christchurch 6.3 percent up. Values in the other main centres have fluctuated in recent months, but still remain above last year by 3.5 percent in Hamilton, 0.6 percent in Tauranga, and 5.0 percent in Dunedin.

In the provincial centres values have been more variable over recent months. However, values in nearly all areas are now above the same time last year. Rotorua is 3.3 percent up, Napier 5.1, New Plymouth 7.1, Wanganui 0.1, Palmerston North 5.6, Nelson 3.6, and Invercargill 4.6 percent. Whangarei is the only centre still below last year at  3.9 percent. Queenstown Lakes is 0.5 percent above last year and this is the first time it has shown year on year growth since May 2008. This is due to an increase in values in the last few months after a relatively flat 2009.

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The monthly statistics provide an indication of how property values around New Zealand have changed over the previous 12 months.  Residential sales compiled for the previous 3 months are compared to the same period of the previous year to identify the annual percentage change in property value. QV’s House Price Index methodology is used to generate a residential index for each area by recognising the sales price of each property sold compared to its capital value. This ensures the index provides a measure of change in property values, without fluctuations caused by higher sales volumes in one or more property sectors (e.g. high volumes of apartment sales or investment properties). The Average Sales Prices calculated in the Property ValueMap are based on residential sales compiled by QV for the previous 3 month period. The residential sales included are for residential houses, apartments, flats, home and income properties, and houses converted to flats.

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