Are you likely to sell for above your asking price?

Sale prices across the country fluctuate. That's a given. It can depend on a variety of different factors including the condition of the property, the market at the time and even how the property is marketed and sold. But when it comes time to sell, do we really expect to get our asking price?

We've taken a look at the sale prices of houses across the country and compared them to their listing price. We can't factor in tenders or auctions, as these have no listed price, so this will only equate for a portion of each market. But from our data we can start to see the trend of how much deviation between the listing price and the eventual sale price there generally is, as well as where in the country you are more likely to get higher than you expect at the moment.

Sale price vs listing price

Just looking at sales data for 2012, there is a much higher number of properties that sell for less than what they list for. In fact 76.2% of properties sell for less than the listing price, 6.2% sold for exactly the listing price and 17.6% sold for more. Generally, those that sell for less than the asking price do so for between 2% and 8% below but around 25% of the properties sold for prices that were 8% or more below the listing price.

On the plus side, while 17.6% of properties sold for more than the listing price, most of these were less than 8% higher with only around 5% selling for more than 8% above the asking price.

Average difference between listing and sale price

While buyers generally don't want to pay the asking price, and sellers potentially leave some negotiating room in their listing price, it is still a little surprising that so many properties sell for below the asking price.

Nationwide the average difference between sales price and listing price is -3.0% but this varies widely between areas. In general the main centres have a small difference between sales price and listing price, whereas in the regional areas the difference tends to be more.

Of the main centres, the best performing are Christchurch and Wellington where the sales prices are very slightly above asking price. The North Shore of Auckland is more or less even, while Auckland west, central and south are around 1% below. Tauranga has the largest gap of the main centres at 4.4%.

Across the rest of the country, the best performing areas are Waimakariri and Selwyn Districts on the outskirts of Christchurch, where post-earthquake recovery activity is driving the market strongly. New Plymouth is also one of the six areas in the country to have a positive gap between sales price and listing price.

At the other end of the scale, Kawerau, Opotiki, Wairoa and Ruapehu districts have average sales prices 12% to 15% less than listing prices, although in these areas there were only 25 to 50 sales in 2012.

Percentage that sell for more than listing

Another way of looking at this same data is to measure the percentage of sales that sold for more than the listing price. Nationwide, 23.8% of sales were for more than the asking price.

From the chart below, the strength of the Canterbury market is clear, with around half the properties selling for above listing price. New Plymouth and Wellington City also have around half, with the rest of the Wellington area not far behind, while there is also a solid proportion in Tasman and Nelson, as well as Dunedin. Most of the central areas of Auckland are around one quarter.

Most of the provincial and rural areas have very few properties that sell for above listing price.