The latest figures suggest the number of new homes being completed in Auckland could be levelling off

By Greg Ninness

There was a sharp drop in the number of new homes completed in Auckland in July, with Auckland council issuing 1147 Code Compliance Certificates for new dwellings, down from the record high of 1532 in June (-25%).

The 1147 new dwellings completed in July this year was also down slightly compared to the 1187 completed in July last year.

Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) are issued when a building is completed, so are a measure of the actual supply of new housing becoming available, unlike building consents which are issued before building work commences and are an indicator of future supply.

However the monthly CCC figures can be quite volatile, particularly in Auckland where they can be affected by the timing of the completion of large apartment projects.

A look at the longer term trends suggests the number of new homes being completed in Auckland may be flattening out after a strong run of sustained growth, rather than declining.

The number of CCCs issued between the 12 months to the end of May this year and the 12 months to the end of July this year has remained within a fairly narrow band of 13,957 to 14,381, suggesting the number of new homes being completed in Auckland each year could be levelling off at somewhere around 14,500.

That likelihood is further reinforced by the rolling monthly average figures, which have ranged from 1163 to 1202 a month between May and July this year.

That suggests a levelling off at around 1200 new dwellings a month in Auckland (the chart below shows the rolling monthly averages from December 2013 to July 2021, with the steady increase over that period clearly evident).

However the Level 4 lockdown restrictions have likely thrown a spanner in the works over August and September., Combined with capacity constraints already evident before the restrictions were introduced which may linger after restrictions have been eased, could mean we may be well into the summer months before a clearer picture emerges on the long term trend in Auckland's new housing supply.

However the latest building consent figures suggest it should remain strong.

This story was originally published on Interest.co.nz and has been republished here with permission.