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The number of new homes consented last month was down over 5% on the previous month on a seasonally-adjusted basis, according to Stats NZ

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By David Hargreaves

We've seen the peak and now we are seeing things sliding rapidly down the other side. The emerging downturn in residential construction is gaining speed again, with a 5.2% seasonally-adjusted drop in consents in July compared with June. This followed a 3.4% rise between May and June.

Stats NZ says there were 3,058 new homes consented in the month of July 2023 - and that's down 25% compared with the figure for July 2022.

In terms of annual figures, there were 43,487 new homes consented in the year ended July 2023 - and that's down 14% compared with the year ended July 2022.

In the year ended July 2023, the number of new dwellings consented per 1,000 residents was 8.4, compared with 9.9 in the year ended July 2022.

"Fewer new homes were consented in each month of 2023 so far, compared with the same month of both 2022 and 2021," Stats NZ's construction and property statistics manager Michael Heslop said.

In July 2023, there were 1,183 stand-alone houses consented, down 32% compared with July 2022. There were 1,875 multi-unit homes consented, down 21% over the same period. (Multi-unit homes include townhouses, apartments, retirement village units, and flats).

"The trend for the number of new homes consented peaked in early 2022 and has decreased 25% since then," Heslop said.

Trend estimates reveal the smooth and slowly changing features in a time series after removing varying seasonal effects.

As said above, in seasonally adjusted terms, the number of new homes consented in July 2023 fell 5.2%, compared with June 2023. This follows a seasonally adjusted rise of 3.4% in June 2023. 

Putting things somewhat in perspective, Heslop said the number of homes consented in the year ended July 2023 is still at a higher level than any 12-month period prior to 2021.

In the year ended July 2023, there were 17,951 stand-alone houses consented, down 23% compared with the year ended July 2022. There were 25,536 multi-unit homes consented, down 6.4% over the same period.

Of the multi-unit homes consented in the year ended July 2023, there were:

  • 18,451 townhouses, flats, and units (down 11%, compared with the year ended July 2022)
  • 4,070 apartments (up 5.4%)
  • 3,015 retirement village units (up 14%).

Stats NZ said in the year ended July 2023, all regions except Gisborne, Nelson, and Marlborough consented fewer new homes compared with the year ended July 2022.

The four regions with the highest number of new homes consented in the year ended July 2023 were:

  • Auckland with 18,743 (down 14%, compared with the year ended July 2022)
  • Canterbury with 7,650 (down 11%)
  • Waikato with 4,121 (down 18%)
  • Wellington with 3,252 (down 17%).

In terms of non-residential building consents, in the year ended July 2023, these totalled $10 billion, up 13% from the year ended July 2022. Stats NZ says this series can be influenced by price changes – non-residential construction prices (as measured by the capital goods price index) were up 6.8% in the year ended June 2023.

In the year ended July 2023, the non-residential building types with the highest values were:

  • hospitals, nursing homes, and health buildings at $1.7 billion (up 53%)
  • offices, administration, and public transport buildings at $1.6 billion (up 12%)
  • education buildings at $1.5 billion (down 4.5%).

This story was originally published on Interest.co.nz and has been republished here with permission.

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